A Donald Trump presidency has arrived — a possibility almost no major pollster saw coming. Except the Los Angeles Times.
The English porn moviesUSC Dornsife/L.A. TimesDaybreak poll predicted what pretty much everyone else saw as a distant and unlikely reality. Leading into Election Day, the poll was predicting a Trump win.
SEE ALSO:Nearly half of Americans didn't vote — not even for Harambe
Looks like the much-maligned LA Times poll got it right.
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 9, 2016
That made it a lone wolf, as most other pollsters predicted a Hillary Clinton win. A week before the election, Trump's lead was already solid in the L.A. Timespoll.
LA Times poll puts Trump 4 points ahead of Clinton https://t.co/59Sq9UQN4W
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) November 2, 2016
And his lead didn't waver much in the following days, as the poll continued to forecast a Trump presidency.
Trump Jumps to Biggest Lead Yet in LA Times Poll! Trump 48, Hillary 42.6 https://t.co/QWFmvqZ7Lc
— Trump Landslide (@JayS2629) November 5, 2016
5Th of November LA Times Poll: Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton by 5.4 Points - Breitbart https://t.co/cbyQxY4V1U via @BreitbartNews
— VOTE TRUMP🇺🇸MAGA (@jenilynn1001) November 5, 2016
LA Times/USC Dornsife Tracking Poll has @realDonaldTrump up 5+
— CA 4 PRESIDENT TRUMP (@CA4TRUMP) November 8, 2016
Trump 48 / Clinton 43 #TrumpPence16 #CA4Trump #ElectionEve #Election2016
So what about all the other outlets, from CNN to the New York Times? What did they miss that the L.A. Times didn't?
To put it simply: a collection of data that most other polls never looked at, according to an expert.
The USC/LATpoll measured a voter's faith in a candidate on a 1-100 scale, something not seen in most other polls giving limited choices. A day ahead of Trump's victory, Dan Schnur wrote a Timesop-ed that explained this crucial difference.
"Whereas most polls simply ask voters to choose between alternatives," Schnur wrote, "the Daybreak poll attempts to determine the intensity of voter preferences by asking how committed a respondent is to his or her candidate (on a scale of 1 to 100)."
Measuring the actual level of commitment voters have is essential, according to Schnur.
"Few voters shift their support on an absolute basis — from total and complete certainty for one candidate to equally unequivocal certainty for the other," he wrote, adding that most voters change their minds gradually.
This is why it's important to gauge voters' opinions over time, rather than using the "traditional all-or-nothing surveys" that exist in many polls, Schnur said.
People have explained away how everyone could've been so wrong about Trump's victory with other reasons, too. Some pollsters have suggested demographics were relied on too much in predicting election results, while others said the key voting bloc of working class white voters wasn't polled enough.
And some said it was just denial, from major media and others who just couldn't fathom Trump winning.
“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” Curt Anderson, a pro-Trump super PAC adviser, told Politico. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening ... they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst."Interestingly, the editorial Schnur wrote ahead of the election called out the backlash the Daybreak poll received from a wide swath of politicos. With the poll predicting a Trump win, Schnur said analysts grew critical of it, something he said reflected personal political views rather than objective analysis.
"The most appropriate response to the Daybreak poll should not be to dismiss it because it reveals something unfamiliar and potentially disagreeable, but rather to study it and learn from it so the science of public opinion research can move forward," Schnur wrote.
Best Fitbit deal: Save $80 on the Fitbit Versa 4Google Maps is adding new color options for your virtual vehicle iconNYT Connections Sports Edition hints and answers for November 10: Tips to solve Connections #48Buccaneers vs. 49ers 2024 livestream: How to watch NFL onlineFlorida State vs. Notre Dame football livestreams: kickoff time, streaming deals, and moreI'm a Celeb 2024 livestream: Watch I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here! for freeIreland vs. New Zealand 2024 livestream: Watch Autumn Internationals for freeShop early Black Friday deals on Amazon Fire tabletsI’m seeing spaghetti squash recipes all over TikTok — is it the new zoodles?NYT Connections Sports Edition hints and answers for November 10: Tips to solve Connections #48Wales vs. Fiji 2024 livestream: Watch Autumn Internationals for freeFlorida State vs. Notre Dame football livestreams: kickoff time, streaming deals, and moreChiefs vs. Broncos 2024 livestream: How to watch NFL onlineGoogle is testing a realBoise State vs. Nevada football livestreams: kickoff time, streaming deals, and moreWTA Finals 2024 livestream: Watch live tennis for freeBest early Black Friday Apple deal: Save $50 on Apple Watch Series 10Cardinals vs. Jets 2024 livestream: How to watch NFL onlineColts vs. Bills 2024 livestream: How to watch NFL onlineMississippi State vs. Tennessee football livestreams: kickoff time, streaming deals, and more Mark Hamill has a dark, dark look in Luke Skywalker's new outfit Star Wars: Jedi Challenges has made holochess an (augmented) reality Facebook rolls out new shows to the entire U.S. Rule your own house in new 'Game of Thrones: Conquest' app Juicero maker squeezed out of business after months of ridicule Someone fired a crossbow arrow into a cricket pitch, forcing 1,000 people to evacuate Google reveals the top things people want to know 'How to' do Boss emailing you on vacation? Respond with this. 'Game of Thrones' star reveals the moment that broke Jaime and Cersei forever If 'Bromans' is the future of American TV we should give up now 'Look What You Made Me Do' director defends Taylor Swift against music video backlash Mark Zuckerberg decries reported end of DACA in heartfelt Facebook post Another monster hurricane, Irma, is brewing in the Atlantic Toshiba launches a tiny TV for the ultimate 'Star Wars' fan It took a lot of work to launch Voyager's message into space Propel Star Wars battle drones hands on New record The Apple event invite TOTALLY contains hidden iPhone 8 secrets What Joel Osteen learned about social media from Hurricane Harvey Can we stop and talk about this Swarovski crystal
2.4896s , 10132.6796875 kb
Copyright © 2025 Powered by 【English porn movies】,Warmth Information Network